Don’t be a Turkeyįormer options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Antifragile reminds us that our history can blind us. Not just because things take longer than we estimate, which they often do (optimism bias), but because unpredictable things will happen to derail us far more often than we like to think. This is why it is wise in project management to build in some contingency and in agile we speak of the “cone of uncertainty” (source: Steve McConnell). No matter how well we think we’ve predicted the future, there are always unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.” That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. No amount of planning will give you 100% certainty. And more pertinently, unexpected undesirable things happen. ![]() The meaning, of course, is that undesirable things happen. There is a short phrase that I’ve been quite fond of in the context of project management and product development for years.
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